Daily Forex News and Watchlist: EUR/AUD

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EUR/AUD got rejected near its previous highs!

How low can the pair go before the bulls charge back?

Before moving on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist looked at CAD/CHF’s range ahead of BOC’s policy decision. Be sure to check out if it’s still a good play!

And now for the headlines that rocked the markets in the last trading sessions:

Fresh Market Headlines & Economic Data:

U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications were down -1.0% w/w vs. -6.9% w/w previous; the average 30-Year Mortgage Rate rose from 7.7% to 7.9%

U.S. New Home Sales for September: 12.3% m/m (-11.0% m/m forecast; -8.2% m/m previous)

The Bank of Canada held the main policy interest rate at 5.00% on Wednesday; expects inflation to return to the 2% target by the end of 2025 (from mid-2025 in July)

ECB President Lagarde says “We are not done yet” fighting high inflation and are “very attentive” in monitoring Middle East conflict risks

Japan’s service producers price index remained at 2.1% y/y (vs. 2.0% expected) in September

Australia’s import prices inched up 0.8% m/m (vs. 0.2% expected, -0.8% previous) in Q3

Spain’s unemployment rate went up from 11.6% to 11.8% in Q3

Price Action News

Overlay of JPY vs. Major Currencies

Overlay of JPY vs. Major Currencies Chart by TradingView

There were not a lot of top-tier economic reports scheduled during the Asian session so traders mostly extended the U.S. dollar’s lowkey upswing from the previous session.

The Japanese yen did see an upward spike at the start of European session trading but JPY lost most of its sudden gains within the hour. One possible reason for the spike is traders pricing in a potential BOJ intervention now that USD/JPY is trading above the closely watched 150.00 mark.

JPY is currently in the red against commodity-related currencies like AUD, NZD, and CAD and is trading the highest against CHF and EUR.

Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar:

ECB’s policy decision at 12:15 pm GMT
U.S. advance GDP at 12:30 pm GMT

U.S. core durable goods orders at 12:30 pm GMT
ECB’s presser at 12:45 pm GMT
U.S. pending home sales at 2:00 pm GMT
Tokyo’s core CPI at 11:30 pm GMT

Use our new Currency Heat Map to quickly see a visual overview of the forex market’s price action! 🔥 🗺️

EUR/AUD 15-min Forex

EUR/AUD 15-min Forex Chart by TradingView

A bit of risk-taking or profit-taking from yesterday’s selloffs likely contributed to AUD and NZD trading higher today.

The euro wasn’t so lucky with traders pricing in the ECB holding its interest rates steady after raising its rates in the last 10 meetings. And that’s with President Lagarde already repeating the central bank’s hawkish bias in an interview!

This is probably why it was kinda easy for EUR/AUD to get rejected near its 1.6825 previous highs. Heck, the pair is already trading closer to the 1.6700 mid-range levels!

How low can EUR/AUD go before it attracts EUR buyers?

Not only is the 1.6700 psychological level near the pair’s mid-range levels, but its current prices also line up with the 15-minute chart’s Pivot Point and 200 SMA support.

If the ECB convinces the markets of its prolonged hawkish biases, or if we see a sell-the-rumor, buy-the-news situation, then EUR/AUD may attract enough buyers to keep the pair in the upper half of its 15-minute range.

But if today’s market events inspire pro-risk or anti-EUR sentiments, then EUR/AUD may extend its downswing and catch the attention of momentum traders all the way to the 1.6600 S1 Pivot Point area.

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