EUR/GBP fails to surpass the 100-day SMA

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  • EUR/GBP retreated near 0.8630 after being rejected by the 100-day SMA at 0.8670.
  • Q2 GDP data from the UK avoided stagnation, surpassing market expectations.
  • Higher British yields help the Pound trade stronger against most of its rivals.

In Friday’s session, the GBP traded with gains agains most of its rivals as the UK reported strong Q2 economic activity figures, which faded recession fears. On the other hand, the EUR is trading mixed, while no relevant data was released during Friday’s session.

Investors assess British solid economic data

The UK's second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data revealed robust performance. In terms of the yearly measurement, it surged by 0.4%, surpassing both the anticipated and previous 0.2% figures. The quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) growth also stood at 0.2%, avoiding the predicted stagnation and beating the earlier 0.1% reading. In addition, Manufacturing and Industrial Production came in strong in June, seeing monthly increases of 2.4% and 1.8%, respectively, above expectations.

Reacting to the data, the British yields are seeing gains across the curve, making the GBP gain interest. The 10-year bond yield rose to 4.57% while the 2-year yield stands at 5.05% and the 5-year yielding 4.58%, respectively. In that sense, they reflect that markets expect the Bank of England (BoE) to continue hiking. According to the World Interest Rate Possibilities (WIRP) tool, investors are pricing 50 bps of additional tightening this cycle which would see the terminal rate peak at 5.75%.

EUR/GBP Levels to watch

According to the daily chart, the technical outlook for the EUR/GBP remains neutral to bearish as the bulls show signs of exhaustion and are losing traction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a weakening bullish trend with a negative slope above its midline, while the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) presents lower green bars. Furthermore, the pair is above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) but below the 100 and 200-day SMAs, indicating that the bulls aren't done yet and have some gas left in the tank.

Support levels: 0.8615, 0.8600 (20-day SMA), 0.8570.

Resistance levels: 0.8670 (100-day SMA), 0.8700, 0.8723 (200-day SMA).

EUR/GBP Daily chart

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