Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, notes that the growth outlook is dominating the FX market.
Growth matters more than central banks
The only positive I can think of for the Euro or Sterling, in a world where growth expectations are the biggest driver of exchange rates, is that expectations about UK and Eurozone growth are already dire relative to the US.
That ought to be enough to prevent a sharp collapse by EUR/USD or GBP/USD (parity for EUR/USD, or GBP/USD down to around 1.15 seems unlikely) but GBP/USD could get to 1.20, and EUR/USD can easily trade below 1.05 easily if we don’t get any positive surprises from the real economy data in Europe soon.
GBP/USD could get to 1.20, EUR/USD can trade below 1.05 without positive European data surprises – SocGen appeared first at: Source